Prediction markets, proximity, and open source
I just read an interesting article called Google’s Lunchtime Betting Game in the NY Times online. It's about the results of an experiment performed with Google employees. Google has been using a betting game to aggregate many employees' intelligence on a particular topic. In the game employees can accumulate Goobles and win prizes.
One of the interesting conclusions is more about the flow of information in an organization. It found (not surprisingly) that information is shared most easily and effectively between people who work close to one another.
This is tangible evidence, the authors argue, that information is shared most easily and effectively among office neighbors, even at an Internet company where instant messaging and e-mail are generally preferred to face-to-face discussion.
At rSmart, and in the Sakai and Kuali open source communities I'm a part of, I often work virtually with others who aren't in the same building, and often aren't even in the same organization. While the tools & technology for being connected are better than ever, my own experience certainly backs up the conclusion.
I'm also curious about the potential use of prediction markets among members of an open source community to deal with the complexity of software product planning and collective decision-making.









cdcoppola:
It looks like there's quite a bit of software to support prediction markets. I found what looks like a comprehensive list that includes some open source options. It also looks like there's a Drupal project underway.
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